Freestyle

It would be hard to preview the men’s freestyle without talking about one man, but it is altogether conceivable that just three swimmers could walk away with all of the golds in this category. Of course the name at the top of that list is Ian Thorpe, who starts as favourite for the 100, 200 and 400m events.

Few would bet against him winning the two longer events, as he is world record holder and reigning world champion in both, but teammate Grant Hackett should push him hard in both races, but particularly the 400m. It is hard to see where other realistic challenges will come from. England’s Jamie Salter will fancy his chances of a medal in the 200 and maybe the 400, whilst Graeme Smith of Scotland, dropping down from the 1500 may pick up a medal. Canda’s Mark Johnston and Rick Say will provide the doemstic swimmers biggest challenge for medals. Either way Thorpe and Hackett remain the swimmers to beat.

In the 100, the talk down under has been that Aussie team-mate Ashley Callus might have enough firepower to prevent the thorpedo form taking the 100m title. The raw statistics would indicate otherwise, with Thorpe having recorded several times under 49s, whereas Callus’ lifetime best is just a shade over that mark, but there is no doubt that Callus has shown he is the man for the big occasion. He won the world short course title in Moscow earlier this year with a fantastically gutsy swim, which saw him take the lead with less than 5m remaining and become one of the few simmers to record a time under 47s in the 25m pool. It is likely though that Thorpe will take this title to complete a golden hat trick. Domestic hopes are slim, with Matt Kidd the only Briton ever to have swum under 50s, the only likely medal winner, and then he represents only an outside hope of bronze. More realistic must be the hope he can improve his own British Record and his standing on the world stage still further.

The distance freestyle event in these games, just the 1500 with no 800 being contested, will go to another sure-fire favourite, world record holder Hackett. He is head and shoulders above the rest of the world in this event, but his nearest global challenger, Graeme Smith, will be in the field in Manchester, and will expect to pick up Commonwealth silver to go with the silver he won in Fukuoka. England’s Adam Faulkner will be a likely bronze medal winner.

Which brings us to the one length dash – the 50m This represents England’s best chance of a gold in this section. Mark Foster is after n unprecedented 3rd consecutive title, but will be pushed hard by Australian Brett Hawke. It’s hard to see who else might pressure him, but South African Ryk Neethling will be there or thereabouts in the final. It would, however, be a surprise, barring misfortune, not to see Foster atop the podium.

Backstroke

Even in backstroke, it’s impossible not to talk about Ian Thorpe. Despite the fact that he has no international pedigree in the event his decision to go for an unprecedented 7 golds in Manchester led him to choose the 100 back as the 7th target. England’s top medal hope in the backstroke events, Adam Ruckwood, isn’t so sure he’ll have it all his own way. “His times haven’t been revolutionary so maybe we can get in amongst it and beat him” he says. Thorpe is ranked second in the 100m, but a punishing schedule, which sees the semi finals of the backstroke on the same day as the final of the 100m free, may make it hard for him to mount a serious challenge.

One person who is certainly not going to let Thorpe take the tiles easily is fellow Australian Matt Welsh. Despite only not featuring on the Australian national scene until he was 19, Welsh has made his mark on world backstroking in the past 2 years, winning silver and bonze the Sydney Olympics behind then world record holder Lenny Krayzelburg and the world titles both long and short course in the following years. He currently sits top of the commonwealth rankings in the 50 and 100, and is only headed by yet another Australian, Ray Hass in the 200. But that won’t matter come Manchester; “Without being defeatist, I can’t se anyone beating Matt Welsh. ” says Ruckwood “If he swims anywhere near his best no one’s going to touch him.”

Another swimmer to keep an eye out for in pullbuoy’s opinion is Canadian sprinter Riley Janes. A solid performance over 50m in Fukuoka was followed up by an impressive showing at the world short course championships this year. Whilst he may not be a genuine contender for gold in any of the backstroke events, he’s a definite possibility to sneak into the podium positions in the 100m back – the only event he is contesting, where he is currently ranked 4th.

From a home perspective, there is much to be optimistic about. Scotland are leading the home nations challenge, with Britain’s number one Gregor Tait a good bet for a medal. He’s shown impressive from in the past two seasons and is currently ranked third in both the 100 and 200 events, so is a genuine medal contender. He will be looking to dip under the magic 2 minute barrier in the 200 and will have his eyes firmly set on Ruckwood’s British record of 1.59.52.

In terms of the English team, the old guard of Ruckwood and Martin Harris are joined by youngster Simon Burnett for the sprint events and medley specialists Simon Militis and James Goddard will probably contest the 200 event. All of them will be looking to make finals, but the chances of medals will appear to rely on someone taking a big step forward from their performances so far this year. Don’t discount Harris in the 50 though, anything can happen in the one length dash.

Adam Ruckwood on racing Matt Welsh and Ian Thorpe at Manchester 2002

Breaststroke

Men’s breastroke throws up some intriguing prospects for these games, being one of the relatively weaker areas of Australian swimming. Whilst of course the Aussies are still strong in real terms, the favourites are undoubtedly from other parts of the Commonwealth, and satisfyingly the home nations are well represented in that category.

England will have high hopes of medals in this section and have a great pedigree to live up to, with the clean sweep of the medals in the 100m event in 1990 the pinnacle to date. This year’s contingent of Darren Mew, James Gibson, and Adam Whitehead, may not be as dominant as Moorhouse et al and win everything, but they will be great medal chances at all three distances. Gibson has had the best year of the three so far, an currently sits atop the 50 and 100, rankings, having set Commonwealth records at both of these distances this year. Mew has also had an encouraging build up, having broken the longstanding British record in the 100m at the trials, before Gibson took it back again, and will be looking to add to his 1998 bronze medal. Coventry’s Whitehead will aim to repeat his 1998 silver medal performance in the 300, but is currently better placed in both the 50m and 100m rankings. Much will depend on those around him, and whether he can produce his best form on the day. Gibson and Mew remain more realistic contenders.

When pullbuoy spoke to James Gibson about his main rivals, as well as singling out Darren Mew, he was quick to bring up Canada’s Morgan Knabe. Knabe set a Commonwealth record just prior to Gibson’s effort, and sits second on the ranking lists of the 100 and 00 and third for the 50, so will be looking for three medals. He’s a tremendously experienced competitor, with Olympic and World finals behind him, and will be tough to beat in all of the events.

The Australians do have a trick up their sleeve however in the shape of Jim Piper. He set a Commonwealth record in the 200m in the Australian trials and is some 3 seconds clear of the field in the rankings for that event, in which he must start as a clear favourite. He’s a little off the pace in the 100m, but can’t be discounted, as like all the Aussies, he will race tough on the day.

South Africa’s Terence Parkin may be down the rankings, but he will be another swimmer with eyes on the medals. The Olympic finalist has had a tough 2002 in breastroke terms, performing rather better in the medley events, but he is to be ignored at your peril, as he is undoubtedly a class act. Which brings us, last but by no means least, to the other big home nation hope, Scotland’s Ian Edmond. He’s been a little below par this year, but is till fifth in the current rankings for the 200m. A swim near his Scottish Record of 2.12.70 should see him onto the podium, and if he’s on form, he may just go close to Nick Gillingham’s British Record of 2.11.29.

Butterfly

Butterfly has in recent years been a British strong point, with James Hickman and Steve Parry competing at the top of the world rankings and with the recent addition of the 50m fly to international events, Mark Foster joining them in the hunt for medals. There’s no doubt though, that the Australian butterfly swimmers have improved since Kuala Lumpur 4 years ago, as have many other Commonwealth swimmers, so don’t expect the home swimmers to have it easy in the Manchester pool.

The men’s 200m fly kicks the entire aquatic programme off on the morning of the 30th July, and England’s representatives will be looking to give the host nation the perfect start. Hickman of course is the defending champion and Parry held the Commonwealth record until the Sydney Olympics, so between them they will have their eyes on beating the number one ranked swimmer Justin Norris. He won bronze in Sydney, and at the same time set the current Commonwealth record of 1:56.17. One of the English swimmers is likely to have to go close to the British record to take the gold. Norris is competing in a lot of events in these games, having also qualified for both medleys and the 100 and 200 breastroke at the Australian trials, so he may not be 100% focussed on this event. IF he isn’t, don’t count out second string Aussie Heath Ramsay, currently ranked second and a 2000 Olympic semi-finalist.

The hundred is perhaps the hardest of the butterfly events to call. With no Michael Klim due to injury, the door would appear to be open for Australia’s Geoff Huegill, world and Olympic bronze medal winner in this event, to claim the gold. But it just doesn’t seem as simple as that, even though he is currently top of the rankings by over half a second, in a time that is faster than the British record. Second Ranked Mike Mintenko of Canada is an experienced competitor and is likely to push the Australian all the way and of course, James Hickman will have a massive incentive to do well in front of his home crowd, having been disqualified at the start 4 years ago. He will, however, have to swim close to, and probably faster than, his best of 52.87, a time set over 2 years ago, to have a realistic medal chance. Our prediction? Heugill from Mintenko, just, with Hickman third. In domestic terms, Todd Cooper will again be looking for a final place, being ranked 7th, and don’t count out England’s David Bennett for an outside lane. Steve Parry should make the final, but will stand a better chance of medalling in the longer 200m event.

The 50m event will see the resumption of the long-standing rivalry between Mark Foster and Geoff Huegill. Huegill is the world record holder and reigning world champion from 2001, winning the gold in a race where Foster took the bronze, so must start as favourite. This year the two of them are once again at the top of the rankings, with Foster currently ranked second, just a few tenths behind his Australian rival. It will be a close race and could go either way, depending on how the swimmers feel on the day. Behind them in the rankings, top Canadian Mike Mintenko hasn’t been selected to swim the 50, and with only three swimmers from each country allowed, the event opens up for other swimmers to get a finals swim. Scotland’s Todd Cooper is currently ranked 7th and should be a good bet for a final place. If he gets there anything could happen. Hickman may swim, but will most likely be satisfied with a final spot if he does. In reality they won’t trouble the top two for the medals.

Steve Parry on his main Commonwealth Rival, Justin Norris.

IM

In common with the women’s; events it is likely that Canada will dominate the individual medley in the Manchester pool. Number one ranked Brian Johns will start as favourites in both events, and deservedly so. he heads the second ranked swimmers in each event by almost a second in both cases, and would appear to being good form this season, having won a silver medal the wold short course in Moscow, behind Tom Wilkens of the USA.

Australian Justin Norris will be the Canadian’s main challenger one would think, ranked as he is second in both events. His focus may be distracted by the 200 fly however, but if his mind is on the job, he could pick up the gold. Another swimmer to watch is Terence Parking of South Africa. the deaf swimmer won a surprise medal in Sydney in the 400 IM and is ranked third in that event this time around. New Zealand also have their best medal hope in this section with Dean Kent, highly ranked in both events coming off a successful work short course championships for him, making the final in both longer medley events, with a top finish of 4th in the 400m

James Hickman won a medal in the 200m last time around but won’t be competing this time, so the English challenge is headed by 7th ranked Adrian Turner in the 200 and by 9th ranked Simon Militis in the 400 but neither can realistically be expected to win medals. Militis has a better chance in the 200m backstroke but both swimmers should be in with a shout of the finals, and from that point anything can happen.