shanghai2011

The importance of Shanghai for 2012

Britain’s swimmers converge on Sheffield this week as the final few places on the plane to the far east and the World Championships of Shanghai are decided. Quite apart from the honour of representing your country, those who make the trip will be giving their Olympic hopes a boost at the last global championships before the swimming community focuses on London 2012.

The importance of the world championships in a pre-Olympic year is often quoted and with good reason. Taking the last two Olympics as examples it is the case that of the 52 gold medals available in Athens and Beijing, 37 were won by swimmers who had mounted the podium in the same event in Barcelona or Melbourne respectively. That Olympic champions do well year on year is perhaps not surprising, but look beyond that headline figure and an important trend emerges. Of the 156 medallists in 2004 and 2008, 99 of them, or 63%, had swum in the same event the year previously, even if they didn’t win a medal or indeed make the final – a category that 23 Olympic medallists fall into.

The lists below show the statistics relating to the podium places in Athens and Beijing and how the medal winners fared leading into those games. Note that the total number of medal winners is two more than might be expected given that there were two dead heat finishes for Bronze in Beijing. The tables at the end of this article show the history for each individual Olympic medallist of 2004 and 2008.

  • Of 52 available golds, 37 (67%) were won by world medallist from the preceding year, of which:
  • 15 were women (58% of women’s gold medals) – this could have been expected to be higher given the Olympic results of Natalie Coughlin and Kirsty Coventry
  • 22 were men (85% of men’s gold medals) – this figure is inflated by Michael Phelps’ dominance
  • Of 156 medals, 69 (44%) were won by a world medallist
  • Of 156 medals, 96 (62%) were won by a world finalist
  • Of 156 medals, 99 (63%) were won by a swimmer who swam the same event at the preceding worlds.

Whether it is simply a matter of experience, the fact that a swimmer is at the top of their game and is able to stay there, or indeed that federations put more resources behind those who are at the top of the tree in a pre-Olympic year, there is an emerging trend that begins to link performances at an Olympics to the previous year’s world championships.

Admittedly two Olympics is a small sample and not enough to generate a rigorous causal link, but the calendar link was not so strong or stable before 2003. Also the figures are skewed by the performances of a certain Michael Phelps and also by the relatively poor form shown by Natalie Coughlin in Barcelona and Kirsty Coventry in Melbourne when both were ill. However the empirical conclusion is clear – swimming an event at a world championships the year before the Olympics can help a swimmer’s Olympic pretensions. That being the case, those final few spots on the team for Shanghai start to look decidedly more valuable.

But those left at home take heart – the figures also reveal that 37% of Olympic medal winners did not compete in the event the year before. The door hence remains ajar for those who miss the cut this time and London 2012 glory can still beckon.

Athens Men

Event Gold Silver Bronze
50 m freestyle Gary Hall, Jr. Duje Draganja Roland Schoeman
Barcelona Position 50 17
100 m freestyle Pieter van den Hoogenband Roland Schoeman Ian Thorpe
Barcelona Position 2 28 3
200 m freestyle Ian Thorpe Pieter van den Hoogenband Michael Phelps
Barcelona Position 1 2
400 m freestyle Ian Thorpe Grant Hackett Klete Keller
Barcelona Position 1 2 5
1500 m freestyle Grant Hackett Larsen Jensen David Davies
Barcelona Position 1 4 5
100 m backstroke Aaron Peirsol Markus Rogan Tomomi Morita
Barcelona Position 1 5 6
200 m backstroke Aaron Peirsol Markus Rogan Razvan Florea
Barcelona Position 1 11 7
100 m breaststroke Kosuke Kitajima Brendan Hansen Hugues Duboscq
Barcelona Position 1 2 8
200 m breaststroke Kosuke Kitajima Dániel Gyurta Brendan Hansen
Barcelona Position 1 14 3
100 m butterfly Michael Phelps Ian Crocker Andriy Serdinov
Barcelona Position 2 1 3
200 m butterfly Michael Phelps Takashi Yamamoto Stephen Parry
Barcelona Position 1 2 4
200 m individual medley Michael Phelps Ryan Lochte George Bovell
Barcelona Position 1 5
400 m individual medley Michael Phelps Erik Vendt László Cseh
Barcelona Position 1 2

Athens Women

Event Gold Silver Bronze
50 m freestyle Inge de Bruijn Malia Metella Libby Lenton
Barcelona Position 1 3
100 m freestyle Jodie Henry Inge de Bruijn Natalie Coughlin
Barcelona Position 2 31
200 m freestyle Camelia Potec Federica Pellegrini Solenne Figuès
Barcelona Position 5
400 m freestyle Laure Manaudou Otylia Jedrzejczak Kaitlin Sandeno
Barcelona Position
800 m freestyle Ai Shibata Laure Manaudou Diana Munz
Barcelona Position 13 2
100 m backstroke Natalie Coughlin Kirsty Coventry Laure Manaudou
Barcelona Position 22 19
200 m backstroke Kirsty Coventry Stanislava Komarova Antje Buschschulte
Reiko Nakamura
Barcelona Position 14 3
100 m breaststroke Luo Xuejuan Brooke Hanson Leisel Jones
Barcelona Position 1 6 3
200 m breaststroke Amanda Beard Leisel Jones Anne Poleska
Barcelona Position 1 2 4
100 m butterfly Petria Thomas Otylia Jedrzejczak Inge de Bruijn
Barcelona Position 2
200 m butterfly Otylia Jedrzejczak Petria Thomas Yuko Nakanishi
Barcelona Position 1 3
200m individual medley Yana Klochkova Amanda Beard Kirsty Coventry
Barcelona Position 1 9
400 m individual medley Yana Klochkova Kaitlin Sandeno Georgina Bardach
Barcelona Position 1 7

Beijing Men

Event Gold Silver Bronze
50 m freestyle César Cielo Filho Amaury Leveaux Alain Bernard
Melbourne Position 6 9
100 m freestyle Alain Bernard Eamon Sullivan Jason Lezak
César Cielo Filho
Melbourne Position 9 3 5,4
200 m freestyle Michael Phelps Park Tae-Hwan Peter Vanderkaay
Melbourne Position 1 3
400 m freestyle Park Tae-Hwan Zhang Lin Larsen Jensen
Melbourne Position 1 11
1500 m freestyle Oussama Mellouli Grant Hackett Ryan Cochrane
Melbourne Position 7 15
100 m backstroke Aaron Peirsol Matt Grevers Arkady Vyatchanin
Hayden Stoeckel
Melbourne Position 1 4,16
200 m backstroke Ryan Lochte Aaron Peirsol Arkady Vyatchanin
Melbourne Position 1 2 4
100 m breaststroke Kosuke Kitajima Alexander Dale Oen Hugues Duboscq
Melbourne Position 2 8 16
200 m breaststroke Kosuke Kitajima Brenton Rickard Hugues Duboscq
Melbourne Position 1 2
100 m butterfly Michael Phelps Milorad Cavic Andrew Lauterstein
Melbourne Position 1 6 15
200 m butterfly Michael Phelps László Cseh Takeshi Matsuda
Melbourne Position 1 9
200 m individual medley Michael Phelps László Cseh Ryan Lochte
Melbourne Position 1 3 2
400 m individual medley Michael Phelps László Cseh Ryan Lochte
Melbourne Position 1 5 2

Beijing Women

Event Gold Silver Bronze
50 m freestyle Britta Steffen Dara Torres Cate Campbell
Melbourne Position 4
100 m freestyle Britta Steffen Lisbeth Trickett Natalie Coughlin
Melbourne Position 3 1 4
200 m freestyle Federica Pellegrini Sara Isakovic Pang Jiaying
Melbourne Position 3 20
400 m freestyle Rebecca Adlington Katie Hoff Joanne Jackson
Melbourne Position 5 7
800 m freestyle Rebecca Adlington Alessia Filippi Lotte Friis
Melbourne Position 10 11
100 m backstroke Natalie Coughlin Kirsty Coventry Margaret Hoelzer
Melbourne Position 1 14
200 m backstroke Kirsty Coventry Margaret Hoelzer Reiko Nakamura
Melbourne Position 2 1 3
100 m breaststroke Leisel Jones Rebecca Soni Mirna Jukic
Melbourne Position 1 17
200 m breaststroke Rebecca Soni Leisel Jones Sara Nordenstam
Melbourne Position 1
100 m butterfly Lisbeth Trickett Christine Magnuson Jessicah Schipper
Melbourne Position 1 2
200 m butterfly Liu Zige Jiao Liuyang Jessicah Schipper
Melbourne Position 4 1
200 m individual medley Stephanie Rice Kirsty Coventry Natalie Coughlin
Melbourne Position 3 2 1
400 m individual medley Stephanie Rice Kirsty Coventry Katie Hoff
Melbourne Position 3 1