Britain’s swimmers converge on Sheffield this week as the final few places on the plane to the far east and the World Championships of Shanghai are decided. Quite apart from the honour of representing your country, those who make the trip will be giving their Olympic hopes a boost at the last global championships before the swimming community focuses on London 2012.
The importance of the world championships in a pre-Olympic year is often quoted and with good reason. Taking the last two Olympics as examples it is the case that of the 52 gold medals available in Athens and Beijing, 37 were won by swimmers who had mounted the podium in the same event in Barcelona or Melbourne respectively. That Olympic champions do well year on year is perhaps not surprising, but look beyond that headline figure and an important trend emerges. Of the 156 medallists in 2004 and 2008, 99 of them, or 63%, had swum in the same event the year previously, even if they didn’t win a medal or indeed make the final – a category that 23 Olympic medallists fall into.
The lists below show the statistics relating to the podium places in Athens and Beijing and how the medal winners fared leading into those games. Note that the total number of medal winners is two more than might be expected given that there were two dead heat finishes for Bronze in Beijing. The tables at the end of this article show the history for each individual Olympic medallist of 2004 and 2008.
- Of 52 available golds, 37 (67%) were won by world medallist from the preceding year, of which:
- 15 were women (58% of women’s gold medals) – this could have been expected to be higher given the Olympic results of Natalie Coughlin and Kirsty Coventry
- 22 were men (85% of men’s gold medals) – this figure is inflated by Michael Phelps’ dominance
- Of 156 medals, 69 (44%) were won by a world medallist
- Of 156 medals, 96 (62%) were won by a world finalist
- Of 156 medals, 99 (63%) were won by a swimmer who swam the same event at the preceding worlds.
Whether it is simply a matter of experience, the fact that a swimmer is at the top of their game and is able to stay there, or indeed that federations put more resources behind those who are at the top of the tree in a pre-Olympic year, there is an emerging trend that begins to link performances at an Olympics to the previous year’s world championships.
Admittedly two Olympics is a small sample and not enough to generate a rigorous causal link, but the calendar link was not so strong or stable before 2003. Also the figures are skewed by the performances of a certain Michael Phelps and also by the relatively poor form shown by Natalie Coughlin in Barcelona and Kirsty Coventry in Melbourne when both were ill. However the empirical conclusion is clear – swimming an event at a world championships the year before the Olympics can help a swimmer’s Olympic pretensions. That being the case, those final few spots on the team for Shanghai start to look decidedly more valuable.
But those left at home take heart – the figures also reveal that 37% of Olympic medal winners did not compete in the event the year before. The door hence remains ajar for those who miss the cut this time and London 2012 glory can still beckon.
Athens Men
Event |
Gold |
Silver |
Bronze |
50 m freestyle |
Gary Hall, Jr. |
Duje Draganja |
Roland Schoeman |
Barcelona Position |
– |
50 |
17 |
100 m freestyle |
Pieter van den Hoogenband |
Roland Schoeman |
Ian Thorpe |
Barcelona Position |
2 |
28 |
3 |
200 m freestyle |
Ian Thorpe |
Pieter van den Hoogenband |
Michael Phelps |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
2 |
– |
400 m freestyle |
Ian Thorpe |
Grant Hackett |
Klete Keller |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1500 m freestyle |
Grant Hackett |
Larsen Jensen |
David Davies |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
4 |
5 |
100 m backstroke |
Aaron Peirsol |
Markus Rogan |
Tomomi Morita |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
5 |
6 |
200 m backstroke |
Aaron Peirsol |
Markus Rogan |
Razvan Florea |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
11 |
7 |
100 m breaststroke |
Kosuke Kitajima |
Brendan Hansen |
Hugues Duboscq |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
2 |
8 |
200 m breaststroke |
Kosuke Kitajima |
Dániel Gyurta |
Brendan Hansen |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
14 |
3 |
100 m butterfly |
Michael Phelps |
Ian Crocker |
Andriy Serdinov |
Barcelona Position |
2 |
1 |
3 |
200 m butterfly |
Michael Phelps |
Takashi Yamamoto |
Stephen Parry |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
2 |
4 |
200 m individual medley |
Michael Phelps |
Ryan Lochte |
George Bovell |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
– |
5 |
400 m individual medley |
Michael Phelps |
Erik Vendt |
László Cseh |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
– |
2 |
Athens Women
Event |
Gold |
Silver |
Bronze |
50 m freestyle |
Inge de Bruijn |
Malia Metella |
Libby Lenton |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
– |
3 |
100 m freestyle |
Jodie Henry |
Inge de Bruijn |
Natalie Coughlin |
Barcelona Position |
2 |
– |
31 |
200 m freestyle |
Camelia Potec |
Federica Pellegrini |
Solenne Figuès |
Barcelona Position |
– |
– |
5 |
400 m freestyle |
Laure Manaudou |
Otylia Jedrzejczak |
Kaitlin Sandeno |
Barcelona Position |
– |
– |
– |
800 m freestyle |
Ai Shibata |
Laure Manaudou |
Diana Munz |
Barcelona Position |
13 |
– |
2 |
100 m backstroke |
Natalie Coughlin |
Kirsty Coventry |
Laure Manaudou |
Barcelona Position |
22 |
19 |
– |
200 m backstroke |
Kirsty Coventry |
Stanislava Komarova |
Antje Buschschulte Reiko Nakamura |
Barcelona Position |
14 |
3 |
– |
100 m breaststroke |
Luo Xuejuan |
Brooke Hanson |
Leisel Jones |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
6 |
3 |
200 m breaststroke |
Amanda Beard |
Leisel Jones |
Anne Poleska |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
2 |
4 |
100 m butterfly |
Petria Thomas |
Otylia Jedrzejczak |
Inge de Bruijn |
Barcelona Position |
– |
2 |
– |
200 m butterfly |
Otylia Jedrzejczak |
Petria Thomas |
Yuko Nakanishi |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
– |
3 |
200m individual medley |
Yana Klochkova |
Amanda Beard |
Kirsty Coventry |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
– |
9 |
400 m individual medley |
Yana Klochkova |
Kaitlin Sandeno |
Georgina Bardach |
Barcelona Position |
1 |
– |
7 |
Beijing Men
Event |
Gold |
Silver |
Bronze |
50 m freestyle |
César Cielo Filho |
Amaury Leveaux |
Alain Bernard |
Melbourne Position |
6 |
– |
9 |
100 m freestyle |
Alain Bernard |
Eamon Sullivan |
Jason Lezak César Cielo Filho |
Melbourne Position |
9 |
3 |
5,4 |
200 m freestyle |
Michael Phelps |
Park Tae-Hwan |
Peter Vanderkaay |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
3 |
– |
400 m freestyle |
Park Tae-Hwan |
Zhang Lin |
Larsen Jensen |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
11 |
– |
1500 m freestyle |
Oussama Mellouli |
Grant Hackett |
Ryan Cochrane |
Melbourne Position |
– |
7 |
15 |
100 m backstroke |
Aaron Peirsol |
Matt Grevers |
Arkady Vyatchanin Hayden Stoeckel |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
– |
4,16 |
200 m backstroke |
Ryan Lochte |
Aaron Peirsol |
Arkady Vyatchanin |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
2 |
4 |
100 m breaststroke |
Kosuke Kitajima |
Alexander Dale Oen |
Hugues Duboscq |
Melbourne Position |
2 |
8 |
16 |
200 m breaststroke |
Kosuke Kitajima |
Brenton Rickard |
Hugues Duboscq |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
2 |
– |
100 m butterfly |
Michael Phelps |
Milorad Cavic |
Andrew Lauterstein |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
6 |
15 |
200 m butterfly |
Michael Phelps |
László Cseh |
Takeshi Matsuda |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
– |
9 |
200 m individual medley |
Michael Phelps |
László Cseh |
Ryan Lochte |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
3 |
2 |
400 m individual medley |
Michael Phelps |
László Cseh |
Ryan Lochte |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
5 |
2 |
Beijing Women
Event |
Gold |
Silver |
Bronze |
50 m freestyle |
Britta Steffen |
Dara Torres |
Cate Campbell |
Melbourne Position |
4 |
– |
– |
100 m freestyle |
Britta Steffen |
Lisbeth Trickett |
Natalie Coughlin |
Melbourne Position |
3 |
1 |
4 |
200 m freestyle |
Federica Pellegrini |
Sara Isakovic |
Pang Jiaying |
Melbourne Position |
3 |
– |
20 |
400 m freestyle |
Rebecca Adlington |
Katie Hoff |
Joanne Jackson |
Melbourne Position |
– |
5 |
7 |
800 m freestyle |
Rebecca Adlington |
Alessia Filippi |
Lotte Friis |
Melbourne Position |
10 |
– |
11 |
100 m backstroke |
Natalie Coughlin |
Kirsty Coventry |
Margaret Hoelzer |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
14 |
– |
200 m backstroke |
Kirsty Coventry |
Margaret Hoelzer |
Reiko Nakamura |
Melbourne Position |
2 |
1 |
3 |
100 m breaststroke |
Leisel Jones |
Rebecca Soni |
Mirna Jukic |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
– |
17 |
200 m breaststroke |
Rebecca Soni |
Leisel Jones |
Sara Nordenstam |
Melbourne Position |
– |
1 |
– |
100 m butterfly |
Lisbeth Trickett |
Christine Magnuson |
Jessicah Schipper |
Melbourne Position |
1 |
– |
2 |
200 m butterfly |
Liu Zige |
Jiao Liuyang |
Jessicah Schipper |
Melbourne Position |
– |
4 |
1 |
200 m individual medley |
Stephanie Rice |
Kirsty Coventry |
Natalie Coughlin |
Melbourne Position |
3 |
2 |
1 |
400 m individual medley |
Stephanie Rice |
Kirsty Coventry |
Katie Hoff |
Melbourne Position |
3 |
– |
1 |